23, 2025. Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), speaks during the election party at the party’s headquarters in Berlin Germany, Sunday, Feb.
Recent polls have put the AfD at just over 40%, well ahead of Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU), who are on around 23%. One possibility could therefore be a minority government led by Schulze, relying on the Left’s passive support, similar to an arrangement used in neighbouring Thuringia.
“No matter the outcome of tomorrow’s election, we have already made history,” said Siegmund. The party has been classified as “far-right extremist” by the state security service. If it does take power, the AfD has said it would push schools and cultural institutions towards more traditional values, marginalise immigrants and carry out sweeping reforms of Germany’s public broadcasting system.
The result could determine whether the AfD merely emerges as the strongest party or secures the outright majority it needs to break through the political firewall that has kept it out of government. Without an outright majority, however, its ability to translate its electoral strength into government would remain constrained by the political firewall. Speaking at the party’s final rally in Magdeburg on Saturday evening, Siegmund said the AfD had already achieved a historic breakthrough, regardless of Sunday’s result.
But the composition of any government could depend heavily on which smaller parties manage to cross Germany’s 5% threshold. If the AfD falls short of a majority, the CDU is expected to have the best chance of forming the next administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze.