dengue Kerala
Kerala is currently experiencing a severe dengue season, recording 7,188 confirmed cases between June and Aug, around 60% above the decade-long average for the same period, data from the Kerala directorate of health services has revealed. Published in GeoHealth journal on Wednesday, the study analysed 14 years of dengue and climate data from Kerala (2006-2019) and found a clear link between El Niño years and higher dengue incidence. The findings build on the team’s earlier Pune-focused research, which projected dengue risk in the city could rise 13-112% under warming scenarios. In Pune, a combination of temperatures above 27°C, moderate and evenly distributed rainfall, and humidity between 60% and 78% during the monsoon (June-Sept) increases dengue incidence,” he said.
The researchers cautioned that the study period ended in 2019 and therefore could not directly attribute Kerala’s current dengue season to the ongoing El Niño event.
The study, researchers said, could offer health authorities an early warning system months before the outbreaks. The researchers said warmer Pacific waters were associated with warmer and relatively drier pre-monsoon conditions in Kerala, creating favourable conditions for mosquito breeding before dengue cases surged during the monsoon. Dr Koll, however, said El Niño had a weaker influence on Pune than on Kerala. “When humidity and temperature patterns are included, the lead time extends to nearly five months, enough to allow authorities to strengthen mosquito-control measures and prepare hospitals ahead of seasonal spikes,” Yacob said.
Pune: El Niño-linked warming in Pacific Ocean could increase dengue risk in Kerala , a study led by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has found as a powerful El Niño develops. The study was led by Sophia Yacob and Dr Roxy Mathew Koll of IITM, in collaboration with ICMR’s National Institute of Translational Virology and AIDS Research (ICMR-NITVAR) and Savitribai Phule Pune University. “We found that the role of El Niño in dengue risk over Pune is weak, while local weather conditions play a major role. A key finding was that Pacific sea-surface temperatures showed their strongest correlation with Kerala dengue cases about three months in advance. Instead, it highlighted a historical pattern that mirrored present conditions.