Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton
The Nobel-winning computer scientist puts the probability at around 10%, while acknowledging there is no reliable way to predict it. His assessment came after the show’s host pointed to a similar warning from a former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxane, who estimated that there is a greater than 10% chance that AI could kill all humans “within the next decade. He said the company does believe AI could potentially kill all humans and personally placed the probability at more than 10% within the next decade.
However, companies including Anthropic and OpenAI have continued to invest heavily in developing larger and more capable models, with newer systems showing rapid improvements over versions released only months earlier.
Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton says it is “not unreasonable” to predict that artificial intelligence (AI) could wipe out humanity within the next decade. Hinton said the window in which AI could pose an existential threat to humanity is also shrinking. “For things like preventing AI from taking over from people, the interests of all the countries are aligned,” he said. Coxon, who had previously worked at OpenAI, said AI developers were effectively “gambling with our lives.
Hinton did not explain why he has shortened his estimate for when AI could pose an existential threat. He again called for international regulation, arguing that countries share an interest in preventing AI systems from taking control away from humans. “So they will eventually collaborate on that. The question is, will they do it in time? Hinton’s comments came after former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned and warned that major AI companies were taking serious risks. Evan Hubinger, alignment science lead at Anthropic, backed Coxon’s assessment.