File photo: How US midterms could shape Trump’s next move in the Iran war
The outcome of the US midterm elections could reshape the political constraints on US president Donald Trump’s war with Iran, even if it does not directly determine the course of the military campaign.
A recent survey cited by the Washington Examiner found that more than 70% of Americans wanted Congress to prioritise lowering living costs and ending the war in 2027. NPR reported that US and Israeli preparations for a possible renewed round of attacks have fuelled expectations of escalation after the midterms.
Discontent has also emerged within Trump’s MAGA base, where opposition to overseas military involvement has challenged his earlier “America First” promises. A Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives would give the opposition greater power to investigate the administration’s handling of the conflict, question its objectives and press for limits on further military action. But Trump would remain commander-in-chief, with the authority to direct US military operations. Congress does have powers over war and military spending, but using them to force a president to change course is difficult. Trump could veto legislation seeking to restrict military operations, and overriding that veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a threshold Democrats are unlikely to reach even if they make significant gains. Lawmakers may also be reluctant to cut funding for American troops already deployed in the region. There are also questions over whether the administration could resume or expand military action after the elections. The US has two aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, with a third on the way, while US allies in the region have stepped up military exercises. These developments do not confirm that an attack is imminent, but point to the possibility of a wider campaign.