Another issue in global phenomena is that we are heading into an El: The wider industry impact

File photo: Benjamin Zaitchik, Morton K Blaustein Chair and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University

Because of El Nino — alongside, there are questions about whether, even as El Nino begins to develop in these precursor stages, that might have something to do with the lower-than-average premonsoon rains and therefore, this kind of feedback of dry land heating the air above it, that would mainly be. It’s helpful to think about this in terms of both weather and climate. From a weather perspective, usually it does get very hot around now until the monsoon starts. However, this particular weather phenomenon is being amplified via a persistent anticyclone — this is high pressure, keeping hot air in place over the land. When you have air that’s stagnant for a long time over land, this heats up the air more than water does — and if the air isn’t moving quickly, it really can get baked. So, that circulation pattern has been stuck there for a while. A possible factor is pre-monsoon rains over much of the region have been below average, causing drier conditions that can increase that baking effect. Alongside, the global climate context is crucial and climate change is inescapable — that’s why we are seeing the increasing probability of these very hot events in India and almost everywhere else in the world as well. Another issue in global phenomena is that we are heading into an El Nino event — this hasn’t fully developed yet but it can generally reduce rainfall during the monsoon. I know IMD is already looking at this probably being a below-average monsoon year in India. I’d say there’s some possibility but the timing isn’t quite right to make that El Nino link.

That creates humidity but, instead of heating up, the land stays cool — therefore, the impact the land has on the atmosphere above it is less severe. When we talk about feedbacks here, the primary issue is that if the ground is damp and vegetation is able to transpire considerable moisture into the air, the energy that hits the land gets converted to what we call latent heat. This is a heatwave in that it’s unusually warm for a persistent duration. With a marine heatwave, we’re talking about what’s happening in the water. Clearly, the ocean’s water has been unusually warm for a long time now — that has all kinds of implications. The most direct impacts are on ocean ecosystems, marine species and, in other locations, coral reefs. Well, when you look at this as a human being, we can understand how our societies get into these situations. But what’s happening now makes you worry on an existential level about what we’re capable of as a species. Can we really come together with the foresight and collaboration needed to deal with both politics that lead to conflict as well as our longer-term climate challenge?