MD’s latest extended-range forecast stated that conditions were expected to become favourable for the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon during Oct 15-21
Pune: The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from the entire country around Oct 15, potentially marking one of its earliest exits in recent years, even as the northeast monsoon establishes itself over southern India, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet. The monsoon began retreating on Sept 19. He said the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon could occur simultaneously, or be separated by no more than 48 hours.
“On the western side, the withdrawal is almost complete, but rainfall activity continues over Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and parts of northeast India,” Sharma said. “The retreat is considered complete once the withdrawal line reaches around 15°N over the peninsula and the monsoon flow vacates the remaining parts of the country,” Sharma said, adding that rainfall over the extreme south peninsula, below 15°N latitude, could begin even before the official onset of the northeast monsoon, as seen this season. “It typically takes four to six weeks, but it can stall abruptly, accelerate, or progress exactly on schedule,” he said.
It has already withdrawn from northern, western and central India. The current withdrawal line passes through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panaji. Sharma described monsoon withdrawal as a highly variable process.
IMD’s latest extended-range forecast stated that conditions were expected to become favourable for the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon during Oct 15-21. GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said the southwest monsoon could retreat from the south peninsula and the remaining parts of central and eastern India by Oct 13, leaving only Mizoram and Tripura under its influence. The withdrawal from the entire country could then be completed within the next 48 hours.
At the same time, the northeast monsoon was likely to commence over south peninsular India. “Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected across most parts of peninsular India and the east coast with the onset of the northeast monsoon. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu , south interior Karnataka and Kerala for a few days during the period,” it stated. it is expected to be below normal over northwest, east and northeast India during the week While rainfall is likely to remain above normal over south peninsular India.