The budget smartphone segment is facing a steep decline, with over 230 million annual shipments priced below $200 (Rs 20,000) expected to disappear from global retail by 2030. According to Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Price Band tracker, this market will shrink by approximately 40% by the end of the decade. This contraction occurs despite a general recovery in total worldwide smartphone shipments, which are projected to rebound to levels seen in 2025.
The disappearing budget tier stems largely from structural aftershocks linked to the 2026–2027 industry downturn. As sub-$200 options disappear, the transition from basic feature phones or shared family devices to personal smartphone ownership risks slowing to a crawl.
A combination of rising prices for mobile chipsets and memory, higher baseline hardware requirements and phone makers scaling back unprofitable market footprints has made entry-level devices increasingly hard to sustain, the report said, adding, as components eat up a far larger share of total build costs on inexpensive devices, manufacturers have virtually no room to absorb price jumps. Across developing and lower-income markets, device affordability remains the single greatest roadblock to mobile internet access. This slowdown threatens to complicate long-term efforts by network operators, software developers, and governments seeking to broaden digital public infrastructure, localized content and mobile financial services.