Jeff D. Colgan is the Richard Holbrooke Professor of Political Science and International and Public Affairs at Brown University.
Because most Americans drive gasoline-powered cars and they see those prices increasing, gasoline is the most visible. Because some Americans put that in their vehicle tanks, but because it affects so much of the rest of the economy — particularly in transportation, goods that are shipped by locomotives, trucks and other forms of transport are powered primarily by diesel, alongside, diesel is also important, not so much. Because he wanted to nationalise Iran’s oil, the most notable example was Iran in 1953 when the CIA and the British MI6 orchestrated a coup against then-PM Mohammad Mosaddegh.
India is well within its rights to feel frustrated with the inconsistency between what Western countries have told it — and the way they themselves behave. Jeff D Colgan is Richard Holbrooke Professor of Political Science and International and Public Affairs at Brown University. The US midterm polls days away, he spoke to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke about fossil fuels, wars, leaders & voters shaping America: How central is the issue of energy in the upcoming US midterm polls? This is a hydra-headed problem — there are multiple channels through which energy prices affect people. We thus have energy prices driving up price inflation for groceries and everyday consumer goods across the board. On top of that, beyond gasoline and diesel, there’s all the other fuels, including jet fuel, naphtha and petrochemicals which are also rising in price. India’s faced threats of sanctions from the EU and US for buying energy from Russia. Now, the West is buying energy from Russia — how do you view this? This is not even unique to the issue of Russian oil. The US and Europe have done this for a long time with respect to India — and it must be frustrating to Indians. Brown University’s Iran War Energy Cost Tracker finds Americans have paid enormous extra money for fuels since the Iran conflict started — yet, there are no ‘cost of living’ protests seen in America, like those occurring recently in France. Why? There certainly have been very large protests here — but these are the ‘No Kings’ demonstrations. Interestingly, in those campaigns, you see signs that raise a whole lot of issues, ranging from respecting science to protecting democracy, not wanting war with Iran and seeking affordability for the middle and working classes. It’s hard to say exactly where the energy protest specifically is — but it is also the case that the United States is not France. We don’t have a big culture of street demonstrations as some other nations do. Also, there is a sense among voters here that we have a different outlet — and it’s just days away. We can take our thoughts to the ballot box. Views expressed are personal You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.
As we see diesel prices going up from 2025 into 2026, we see Republicans souring on President Trump. Energy is remarkably central and there is good polling data to show Donald Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters tracks quite negatively as diesel prices in the United States rise. It is striking how clear the connection appears to be — that reinforces our long-standing folk knowledge about how American voters see gasoline and diesel prices posted on large signs by highways and roads constantly. This is one of the central numbers voters pay attention to when judging how well the country is doing under its government. How has energy impacted the lives of Americans over this Trump presidency?
The main difference for American politics is about appearances — this is all about President Trump trying to show his base that he’s working for them, he’s making deals with Russia and authorising the Department of Agriculture to spend an additional $8 billion to help farmers really impacted by diesel and fertiliser prices. Energy prices in the US had somewhat normalised after the Russian invasion of 2022. They spiked sharply in 2023 for Europe and some other parts, including India, but, by 2024, those effects had mostly lessened here — higher energy prices today are almost entirely attributable to the Iran war. That is a sharp reversal from the practices of the United States over the last 50 years — it is, in some sense, a reversion to older practices prior to the 1970s when the United States did use its muscle, either with overt or covert force, to try to select leaders in other countries.
This is not good news for Ukraine — Kyiv is being left out of many of these discussions while President Zelenskyy has pointedly said the US is now restricting its access to Starlink, Patriot missiles and other instruments of defence that it very much needs. So, producers like Venezuela, Iran, etc., get told what to do. Recently, this showed at its clearest when President Trump said the United States should have a say in who runs Venezuela. Early on in the conflict with Iran, he said the United States should have a say in who Iran’s next supreme leader should be — of course, they completely ignored him.
Jet fuel hits airline prices while gas and oil impact heating, something that is particularly important for regions with cold winters. Heating oil is becoming very expensive — that will really bite as people look into the winter at rising furnace costs as well. How much change will the US-Russia diesel deal now bring? In terms of global prices, the deal is really very opaque — it’s not clear what was actually agreed to. Russia has not signaled any kind of quantitative number it’s assented to change. So, it may all be hot air — but if we take President Trump’s figures at face value, in a big world market, the numbers we’re talking about are not sufficient to change global prices by a huge amount. He’s trying to signal to his voters that, ‘Look, I’m working for you, even in these tough economic times. The real question is whether voters will appreciate that — or if they will see beyond it and consider the root cause of this price inflation actually being the Iran war that President Trump initiated. How has the US-Iran conflict specifically impacted Americans? Around three times as much diesel flows through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime than what Russia normally gets to export. Of course, there is the impact of Ukraine attacking Russian refineries, which has disrupted Russian crude oil and diesel. However, the overall impact is very much weighted towards the Iran war. What are the deeper geopolitical meanings of this US-Russia alignment now? Russia has long wanted to be seen as a great power that is on par with the United States and China — hence, Vladimir Putin has been trying to get a summit between President Trump, Xi Jinping and himself and Trump has also signalled he’d be willing to attend such a meeting. So, President Trump really does seem to be catering to President Putin’s needs and desires. Now, that’s something that, in the past, American voters have not wanted from their president — there’s a big question mark about how they’ll react in a few days. What does this deal mean for Ukraine? You’ve written intriguingly about American ‘ petro-imperialism ’, saying this has returned with Venezuela. Why? However, that’s the attitude he brings to foreign policy — he advocates this notion that ‘the strong’, meaning the United States, should push around oil producers globally.
Petro-imperialism, at its root, is about powerful actors like the United States or earlier, Britain, using their military strength and other instruments of coercion, financial or otherwise, to push around countries that produce oil but are weaker, politically, militarily, etc.
