A satellite image shows Hurricane Polo intensifying near the coast of southwestern Mexico. (Photo: CSU/CIRA & NOAA/Handout via REUTERS)
US federal forecasts put the chance of a very strong El Niño above 90% this autumn and winter, with a 75% probability that the event could reach historic strength. California has declared a state of emergency ahead of the winter weather threat, while Hurricane Polo remains a Category 5 storm off Mexico. Previous strong El Niño events have frequently brought damaging conditions to the state, while studies have associated them with above-normal precipitation, Cable News Network (CNN) reported.
The order allows the state to position resources in advance and coordinate preparations for severe weather. California is likely to be among the US areas most exposed to the unusually strong climate cycle. California Gov Gavin Newsom declared the emergency on Monday to mobilize resources before the El Niño peaks this winter.
The El Niño also coincides with the peak of an 18-year astronomical high-tide cycle.
Patrick Barnard, research director at the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said the cycle will push King Tides above their usual levels. The effects are already being seen along the California coast, where El Niño has pushed sea levels higher. As the event reaches its expected winter peak, the state could face coastal flooding, heavy rainfall at lower elevations and mountain snow. Scientists regard widespread flooding along the coast as close to certain. El Niño can also add energy to waves generated by Pacific storms, increasing the risk of coastal erosion and closures on key transport links. Those coastal risks do not depend entirely on the path taken by major Pacific storms. El Niño itself raises coastal water levels, adding to sea-level rise already linked to climate change.