In 2013, Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Paul G Allen committed $7 million to one of the largest efforts ever undertaken to determine how many African elephants remained in the wild. Aerial surveys were conducted between 2014 and 2016 across 18 countries, producing an estimate of 352,271 savanna elephants. In 15 countries where reliable historical comparisons were possible, savanna elephant numbers had fallen by about 30% between 2007 and 2014, with researchers estimating that populations were continuing to decline at roughly 8% each year.
More alarming than the total was what the census revealed about their decline. Known as the Great Elephant Census, the project was led by Elephants Without Borders and involved scientists, conservation organisations, pilots and wildlife authorities across the continent.
Allen announced the Great Elephant Census in December 2013 after becoming increasingly concerned about the lack of reliable, standardised information on Africa’s elephant populations. The initiative was funded with $7 million from his philanthropic organisation and was designed to provide conservationists with a consistent baseline of elephant numbers across much of Africa. The census used standardised aerial survey methods to count elephants across 18 African countries. The project involved 90 scientists, six major NGO partners and numerous local researchers, pilots and wildlife officials. Teams used 81 aircraft and flew approximately 294,517 kilometres of survey transects, spending about 9,700 hours in the air. The survey covered approximately 218,238 square kilometres, representing about 24% of the areas included in the study. When the results were published in 2016, researchers estimated that 352,271 savanna elephants were living across the 18 countries included in the census. The estimate had a statistical standard error of 9,085, with a 95% confidence interval of approximately 334,464 to 370,078 elephants. The census was estimated to have accounted for at least 93% of the savanna elephants in those countries. In the 15 countries where sufficient historical data existed for comparison, researchers estimated that savanna elephant numbers had declined by approximately 30% between 2007 and 2014. That represented an estimated loss of around 144,000 elephants during the period. Researchers also estimated that populations were continuing to decline at roughly 8% per year, with poaching identified as the main driver of the decline.
Because the figure does not represent every African elephant, this distinction is important. The researchers therefore presented the result as a comprehensive assessment of the savanna elephant populations covered by the project rather than a complete count of every elephant on the continent. Because they showed conservationists not only where the crisis was most severe but also where management and protection appeared to be producing more positive outcomes, these findings were important.
The census revealed a far more serious situation than the headline population figure alone suggested. Elephants Without Borders led the project, working with a network of conservation organisations and researchers. Survey teams flew systematic transects over large areas, recording live elephants and elephant carcasses and collecting information that could later be compared across countries. The scale was intended to make the resulting estimates more consistent and scientifically robust than fragmented counts carried out using different methods. The study focused on savanna elephants, which can be surveyed more effectively from aircraft than forest elephants living beneath dense tropical vegetation. The findings showed that the crisis was not limited to a handful of isolated areas. Large-scale losses were occurring across multiple elephant populations, threatening the long-term survival of one of Africa’s most iconic species. The researchers linked much of the decline to the illegal killing of elephants for ivory. The survey recorded both living elephants and carcasses, allowing scientists to assess mortality patterns across the surveyed landscapes. High proportions of carcasses in several areas indicated substantial levels of recent elephant deaths, while the geographical pattern of the declines corresponded with regions experiencing serious poaching pressure. The researchers concluded that poaching was the primary factor driving the observed decline in savanna elephant numbers. The findings arrived during a period of intense international concern over the illegal ivory trade, which had created strong incentives for organised poaching in parts of Africa. The census did not produce uniformly negative results. Researchers found populations that were stable or increasing in several locations, demonstrating that effective conservation could make a measurable difference. Countries and regions including South Africa, Uganda, Kenya and parts of Malawi provided examples of populations that were doing better than those experiencing severe declines.
The survey also documented elephant populations in Ethiopia and Kenya that had not been included in some earlier assessments and identified elephants in an area of Botswana where they had previously been thought to have disappeared.