The sugar production projection is based on an estimated sugar cane yield of 81 tonnes per hectare and sugar recovery of 11.25%
“Mills are unlikely to operate for more than 80 days and sugar production may not cross 85 lakh tonnes. Patil reiterated the industry’s long-pending demand to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar to Rs 45 per kg, saying it had remained unchanged for the past eight years. As a result, sugar production is unlikely to exceed 90 lakh tonnes.
Industry expert Vijay Autade said lower cane yields and weaker sugar recovery would significantly impact production. Moreover, with sugar prices remaining firm, mills may prefer sugar production over ethanol diversion,” Autade said. We have informed govt about the ground reality,” Patil told TOI . He said millers had sought a soft-loan package to meet harvesting, transportation, salary and maintenance expenses. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has assured the industry that govt will place a proposal before the state cabinet and explore providing guarantees for such loans, according to Patil. He further urged govt to crack down on illegal jaggery units, which he said distorted the cane market.
The estimates have, however, drawn sharp criticism from industry experts and millers, who argued that the projections were overly optimistic. “The estimates are unrealistic. Delays in cultivation will reduce cane yields, while sugar recovery will also be lower than what govt expects. We are looking at a decline of around five tonnes of cane per hectare. Harshvardhan Patil, president of National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Mills, predicted an even lower output.
Millers acknowledged that an early start to crushing could affect revenues, but said competitive pressures had left them with little choice. Shamrao alias Balasaheb Patil, chairperson of Sahyadri Cooperative Sugar Factory in Karad, said sugar prices were likely to strengthen further. We have already seen an upward trend since July, driven by expectations of lower production,” he said.
“Sugar prices are expected to rise from April.