New Delhi: Brace for a polluted Diwali , with the capital’s air likely to turn ‘severe’ from Friday and the air quality index (AQI) predicted to remain above 400, on a scale of zero to 500, over the next few days.
Delhi’s air quality has already been deteriorating since Nov 1. Beig said that north-northwesterly winds, favourable for intrusion of stubble burning emissions, are expected to prevail between Nov 7 and 10. “If conventional firecrackers are burst, they are likely to cause a spike in pollution levels, with peak pollution expected from midnight Nov 8 to the early hours of Nov 9.
Because of carcinogenic heavy metals,” he said, chinese firecrackers, if lit, may harm our health.
Gufran Beig, founder of System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) and chair professor at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), said, “As stubble burning has been delayed by two weeks in Punjab and Haryana, the peak burning period is likely to fall in the second week of Nov. Beig added that even if firecrackers are not burst, the combined impact of El Niño-related weather conditions and peak stubble burning could worsen Delhi’s air quality in the days to come.
As meteorological conditions were favourable during Diwali 2022, AQI dipped from 312 on Diwali (Oct 24) to 303 on Oct 25. In contrast, Diwali 2021 saw a major rise in pollution. AQI spiked from 314 on Diwali eve (Nov 3) to 382 on Diwali before shooting to 462 on Nov 5. Similarly, Diwali in 2020 witnessed a rise in AQI from 339 on the eve to 414 on Diwali and to 435 the next day.
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The AQI was at 369 Thursday, while the contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s PM2.5 levels touched a seasonal high of 16.3% Wednesday. In 2025, the reading on the eve of Diwali (Oct 19) was 296 (‘poor’), but rose to 345 (‘very poor’) on Diwali and to 351 on Oct 21. A similar pattern was seen on Diwali in 2024. In 2023, AQI jumped from 218 on Diwali (Nov 12) to 358 the next day.
Due to a Super El Niño, there is a possibility that wind speeds further decrease and temperatures drop. Because of El Niño, the mercury is likely to dip from the second week of Nov, hampering the process of dispersion of pollutants in the city’s air, though a milder winter is expected. With additional emissions from firecrackers, the onset of winter conditions and an increasing contribution from stubble burning, Delhi is expected to record high pollution levels this Diwali. An analysis of pollution levels during Diwali in the past years shows that AQI rises significantly the day after the festival. the ban was widely flouted While the use of green crackers was allowed for two hours at night on two days. Since the festival was celebrated in mid-Oct, the impact of winter conditions and stubble burning on the air was less.