Rain
Bengaluru: After being battered by an unprecedented drought on record during the southwest monsoon this year due to strong El Niño conditions, Karnataka could get some much-needed respite in the form of the northeast monsoon, with meteorologists expecting near-normal rain over south interior Karnataka and coastal districts.
Meteorologists tracking IOD said it is currently neutral but showing signs of developing into a positive IOD. Weather experts said a positive IOD phase generally favours moisture convergence over the peninsular region and could aid the northeast monsoon from Oct to Dec. “If you look at the climatological history, strong IOD conditions can help offset the hot and dry conditions associated with El Niño and bring in late-season rain,” the IMD scientist said.
The likelihood of normal rain is linked to the prevailing near-neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—a key ocean-atmosphere phenomenon influencing rainfall patterns over the region. “Throughout the southwest monsoon season, IOD remained neutral. However, several international climate models and meteorological forecasts have indicated a transition towards positive IOD conditions over the next few weeks,” explained a senior scientist at IMD, Bengaluru.
The index remained positive during the pre-monsoon season from Feb to April, according to IMD scientists who have been tracking IOD since the beginning of 2026.
A neutral IOD with a slight positive tilt during the northeast monsoon season could support near-normal rain, they said.
IOD assumes significance for Karnataka, which has been grappling with drought and mounting pressure on its water and power resources. A normal northeast monsoon could bring additional inflows into reservoirs in Cauvery basin, easing the state’s growing water stress. However, the IOD signal by itself does not provide a specific rainfall prediction for Karnataka, and the eventual impact will depend on the evolution of regional weather systems, IMD scientists cautioned.
“An active weather system is developing over parts of Karnataka and is likely to bring intense thundershowers, accompanied by strong gusty winds and fairly widespread rain across coastal and south interior Karnataka, including Bengaluru, throughout this week,” the IMD Bengaluru forecast said. Amid the hope of a favourable northeast monsoon, IMD has forecast thundershowers over coastal and south interior Karnataka this week. You Can Also Check: Gold Rate in Bengaluru | Silver Rate in Bengaluru | Bank Holidays in Bengaluru | Public Holidays in Bengaluru | Bengaluru AQI | Weather in Bengaluru | Petrol Price in Bengaluru | Diesel Price in Bengaluru | CNG Price in Bengaluru | LPG Price in Bengaluru