File photo: Donald Trump at a Make America Great Again rally
However, voters under 30 accounted for only about one in 10 of the electorate, limiting the overall impact of the shift. Nearly 6 in 10 also said opposing Trump was one reason for their House vote. Republicans appeared to lose most, if not all, of the gains Trump made among Hispanic voters in 2024. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters backed Democratic candidates in their local House races, while roughly one-third supported Republicans. This compared with around 4 in 10 Hispanic voters who had backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters supported Talarico, compared with about 3 in 10 who voted for Paxton. Only about 1 in 10 Black men supported the Republican candidate in their local House race, down from roughly one-quarter who had backed Trump in 2024. Around 9 in 10 Black voters supported Democratic House candidates, compared with approximately 8 in 10 who voted for Harris. About 9 in 10 Black men supported Bottoms, compared with roughly three-quarters who had backed Harris in 2024. Support among Black women remained around 9 in 10. About one-quarter of Black men voted for him over Democrat David Jolly, while only around 1 in 10 Black women backed the Republican. Around two-thirds of moderates supported Democratic candidates in their local House races, up from approximately 6 in 10 who had backed Harris in 2024. The poll found that roughly 8 in 10 moderates believed Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won roughly 7 in 10 moderate voters, compared with around half who supported Harris in 2024. More than half of voters whose household income was below $50,000 in 2025 backed Democratic candidates in their local House races. In 2024, this group had been almost evenly divided between Trump and Harris. Around 3 in 10 US voters reported an annual household income below $50,000. About 6 in 10 voters earning less than $50,000 said the cost of living was crucial to their voting decision, compared with roughly half of those earning more. It surveyed more than 100,000 registered voters across all 50 states between October 19 and November 3 in Alaska, and October 22 and November 3 in other states. The margin of sampling error for the full survey was plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
Because of inflation over the past year, a similar proportion reported experiencing at least moderate financial hardship. In Iowa, Josh Turek secured about two-thirds of moderates, while Roy Cooper won roughly three-quarters of the group in North Carolina. First-time midterm voters, who tend to be younger, also largely favoured Democrats. Their dissatisfaction with the country’s direction was evident, with about half saying they were angry about the state of affairs. The Democratic shift among younger voters was visible in all five Senate races where the party gained seats — Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. The shift was particularly evident in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race. In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody managed to narrowly secure re-election, but received support from fewer than half of Hispanic voters. Black voters also moved back towards Democrats after Trump’s gains in the previous presidential election. The shift was particularly pronounced in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor. In Florida, however, Republican Byron Donalds, elected the state’s first Black governor, did not secure comparable support. Democrats also strengthened their position among moderate voters, a group that proved particularly important in Senate races where the party flipped Republican-held seats. Moderate voters were a significant part of Democratic victories in several closely contested Senate races. Economic pressures also appear to have influenced the shift, with lower-income voters moving towards Democrats amid concerns over the rising cost of living. These voters were more likely than higher-income groups to express concern over food and grocery prices, fuel costs and utility bills. The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News Media, NBC News and Versant. You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.
Democrats had a sweeping victory during the 2026 US midterm elections, bringing focus to some of the key demographics where they made significant gains. Thereby, reversing several advances president Donald Trump made among traditionally Democratic voters in the 2024 presidential race, according to the AP Voter Poll. A survey of more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states found that voters under 30, Hispanic voters, Black voters, moderates and lower-income households shifted towards Democratic candidates, helping the party secure victories in several key races. Nearly 7 in 10 voters under 30 said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race, compared with roughly 3 in 10 who backed Republicans. During the 2024 presidential elections the voters were equally divided between Kamala and Trump.